^{Credit: One Battle Another Another (Warner Bros.), KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix, Sony Pictures Animation), Sinners (Warner Bros.), Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios), Hamnet (Focus Features), Éiru (Cartoon Saloon)} 

Here at Cartoon Contender, we discuss animation, awards, and everything in between. I’ve already done a deep dive into the races for Best Animated Feature and Best Animated Short at the 98th Academy Awards, which will unveil nominations on January 22. For those curious about “everything in between,” here are my final Oscar predictions in all 24 categories:

Best Picture:

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Sinners

4. Frankenstein

5. Marty Supreme

6. Sentimental Value

7. The Secret Agent

8. Bugonia

9. It Was Just an Accident

10. Train Dreams

Alternative: F1: The Movie

My Dream Pick: KPop Demon Hunters (not eligible)

 

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson: One Battle After Another

2. Ryan Coogler: Sinners

3. Chloé Zhao: Hamnet

4. Josh Safdie: Marty Supreme

5. Jafar Panahi: It Was Just an Accident

Alternative: Kleber Mendonça Filho: The Secret Agent

My Dream Pick: Clint Bentley: Train Dreams

 

Best Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet: Marty Supreme

2. Wagner Moura: The Secret Agent

3. Leonardo DiCaprio: One Battle After Another

4. Michael B. Jordan: Sinners

5. Ethan Hawke: Blue Moon

Alternative: Joel Edgerton: Train Dreams

My Dream Pick: Will Arnett: Is This Thing On?

 

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley: Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne: If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Renate Reinsve: Sentimental Value

4. Emma Stone: Bugonia

5. Chase Infinity: One Battle After Another

Alternative: Kate Hudson: Song Sung Blue

My Dream Pick: Eva Victor: Sorry, Baby

 

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård: Sentimental Value

2. Benicio del Toro: One Battle After Another

3. Jacob Eldridge: Frankenstein

4. Paul Mescal: Hamnet

5. Sean Penn: One Battle After Another

Alternative: Miles Caton: Sinners

My Dream Pick: Adam Sandler: Jay Kelly

 

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor: One Battle After Another

2. Amy Madigan: Weapons

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas: Sentimental Value

4. Odessa A’zion: Marty Supreme

5. Wunmi Mosaku: Sinners

Alternative: Ariana Grande: Wicked: For Good

My Dream Pick: Ariana Grande: Wicked: For Good

 

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. The Secret Agent

4. Sentimental Value

5. It Was Just an Accident

Alternative: Sorry, Baby

My Dream Pick: Sorry, Baby

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Bugonia

4. Frankenstein

5. Train Dreams

Alternative: No Other Choice

My Dream Pick: The Life of Chuck

 

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Arco

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

4. Zootopia 2

5. Elio

Alternative: Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

My Dream Pick: Lost in Starlight

 

Best International Feature Film

1. Sentimental Value

2. The Secret Agent

3. It Was Just an Accident

4. Sirât

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Alternative: No Other Choice

My Dream Pick: Left-Handed Girl

 

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka

3. Cover-Up

4. Apocalypse in the Tropic

5. My Undesirable Friends: Part I — Last Air in Moscow

Alternative: The Alabama Solution

My Dream Pick: Orwell 2+2=5 (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Casting

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Sentimental Value

Alternative: Weapons

My Dream Pick: The Long Walk (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners

2. One Battle after Another

3. Train Dreams

4. Frankenstein

5. Marty Supreme

Alternative: F1: The Movie

My Dream Pick: Hamnet

 

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Hamnet

4. Sinners

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Alternative: The Testament of Ann Lee

My Dream Pick: The Ugly Stepsister

 

Best Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Hamnet

5. F1: The Movie

Alternative: Sentimental Value

My Dream Pick: The Perfect Neighbor

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. The Smashing Machine

5. Nuremberg

Alternative: The Ugly Stepsister

My Dream Pick: Weapons (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein

2. Wicked: For Good

3. Sinners

4. Hamnet

5. The Secret Agent

Alternative: The Fantastic Four: First Steps

My Dream Pick: Eternity

 

Best Original Song

1. KPop Demon Hunters: “Golden”

2. Sinners: “I Lied to You”

3. Diane Warren: Relentless: “Dear Me”

4. Wicked: For Good: “The Girl in the Bubble”

5. Train Dreams: “Train Dreams”

Alternative: Come See Me in the Good Light: “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”

My Dream Pick: Padding in Peru: “Let’s Prepare for Paddington” (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Original Score

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hament

4. Frankenstein

5. Marty Supreme

Alternative: Sirât

My Dream Pick: The Testament of Ann Lee (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Sound Design

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. F1: The Movie

4. Frankenstein

5. Sirât

Alternative: Avatar: Fire and Ash

My Dream Pick: Warfare (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Visual Effects:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. F1: The Movie

3. Superman

4. The Lost Bus

5. Sinners

Alternative: Wicked: For Good

My Dream Pick: Predator: Badlands (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Best Live-Action Short

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva

2. Rock, Paper, Scissors

3. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

4. Beyond Silence

5. The Boy with White Skin

Alternative: A Friend of Dorothy

My Dream Pick: Jane Austen’s Period Drama

 

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms

2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

3. The Devil Is Busy

4. Bad Hostage

5. We Were the Scenery

Alternative: Cashing Out

My Dream Pick: Armed Only with a Camera

 

Best Animated Short

1. Ériu

2. Autokar

3. Playing God

4. Snow Bear

5. Retirement Plan

Alternative: Butterfly (Papillon)

My Dream Pick: Whale 52 (Didn’t make the shortlist)

 

Closing Thoughts: Sinners could break the record for the most Oscar nominations ever with fifteen. Even if it does, One Battle After Another should still be the Best Picture frontrunner. I feel unusually confident about the ten films I have predicted for Best Picture, although Train Dreams is vulnerable. Perhaps an audience favorite like F1, Weapons, Wicked: For Good, or Avatar: Fire and Ash can sneak in, but none of them seem to have enough fuel to get that final slot.

International cinema should have a great morning with Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and It Was Just an Accident inclined to get Best Picture nominations. We can also expect at least one of those films to show up in the Best Director lineup. Perhaps all three will be nominated, although that would mean potentially having to push Chloé Zhao or even Ryan Coogler out of my predictions. I'm not bold (stupid?) enough to do that. 

Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, and It Was Just an Accident are all Neon releases. There's been much speculation about whether the Best International Feature race will consist exclusively of Neon titles, the other two being Sirât and No Other Choice. While I have Sirât in there, given its strength on the shortlists, I suspect the Academy will continue to give Park Chan-wook the cold shoulder in favor of The Voice of Hind Rajab, which has gained a small yet vocal following.

If the Neon Five were to pull it off, this would be reminiscent of 1957, when every Best Animated Short nominee was UPA's Stephen Bosustow. Speaking of which, I stick by my Best Animated Short predictions from a few weeks ago, although I don't feel great about leaving Butterfly out. It could still possibly make the lineup, especially if Snow Bear splits votes with Forevergreen. Or maybe they'll nominate both bear shorts! 

In Best Animated Feature, I settled on Elio as the fifth slot. Demon Slayer has exceeded every expectation, getting nominations at the Golden Globes and PGA, not to mention making the BAFTA longlist. So did Elio, however. The most telling sign is the Annie Awards, where Elio tied with KPop Demon Hunters for the most nominations. Demon Slayer got zero, and yes, I can confirm that it was eligible for Annie consideration, having looked through the ASIFA-Hollywood Screening Room. Plus, Pixar has done better at the Oscars than Crunchrolly, although the latter may be on the verge of an Oscar breakthrough if they got this far with Demon Slayer. 

There's always bound to be a major omission from the acting categories. I believe the one that'll make headlines is Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good. To the Arianators, this prediction brings me no joy, as Grade would be my personal choice to win. While Grande has gotten in everywhere she needs to (Golden Globe, Actors Awards, Critics' Choice, BAFTA longlist), Odessa A’zion and Wunmi Mosaku are surging for their performances in films with better Best Picture prospects. Somebody will inevitably get left out. Grande makes the most sense, not only because she was nominated for this role last year, but because Cynthia Erivo is an even longer shot for a Best Actress bid. It'd feel weird nominating one but not the other, right?

Not expecting many other surprises, although I'm fully prepared to eat my words on Thursday. See you at 5:30 a.m. PT (8:30 a.m. ET)! 

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1 and 2. Available Now!