^{Credit: Autokar (Sylwia Szkiladz), Éiru (Giovanna Ferrari), Playing God (Matteo Burani), Retirement Plan (John Kelly), Snow Bear (Aaron Blaise)}

This year, 113 animated shorts were submitted for Oscar consideration. That list has been narrowed down to a shortlist of fifteen, although trying to predict the five nominees is like taking five shots in the dark. You’ll be lucky if even one hits the target. When it comes to Oscar predictions, the shorts categories are historically the hardest to nail down. There aren’t a dozen precursor awards to provide a temperature test. In the case of Best Animated Short, the Annie Awards can offer some insight, but they don’t always align with the Oscars. There’s even less crossover with the BAFTAs, where an animated short needs to be British to qualify. Oscar pundits thus must rely on festival buzz, past patterns in this category, and general vibes.

Before the shortlist was announced, I spoke with a filmmaker whose animated short ultimately didn’t advance to the next round. They said there are two films guaranteed to be nominated: Giovanna Ferrari’s Éiru and Aaron Blaise’s Snow Bear. Éiru is from Cartoon Saloon, which has produced Oscar-nominated animated features such as The Secret of Kells, Song of the Sea, The Breadwinner, and Wolfwalkers. Louise Bagnall’s Late Afternoon scored the Irish studio a Best Animated Short nomination in 2018, but Cartoon Saloon remains overdue for a win. Éiru may pull it off with relevant themes regarding feuding clans and the toll their division has taken on nature. It doesn’t hurt that Éiru screened with Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, which is absolutely getting a Best Animated Feature nomination.

^{Credit: Snow Bear (Aaron Blaise), Forevergreen (Jeremy Spears, Nathan Engelhardt)}

Aaron Blaise is a past Oscar nominee for Disney’s Brother Bear. Over two decades later, he may return to the Oscars with another animated film about a bear. Snow Bear has already amassed over one million views on YouTube, warming hearts with its story of love and loss. While it’s hard to imagine Snow Bear missing the Oscar lineup, it’s not the only bear-related short in contention. Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears made a wonderful film with Forevergreen, in which a sentient forest tree takes in an orphaned grizzly bear, attempting to shield him from the temptation of human trash. Like Blaise, Engelhardt and Spears come from Disney backgrounds, working on Big Hero 6, Zootopia, and several other features. Where Snow Bear harkens back to the Disney Renaissance, Forevergreen is in the spirit of modern Disney. Ironically, voters overlooked the one short from Disney this year, Versa, although more would’ve seen Malcon Pierce’s film if it played with Zootopia 2.

Snow Bear and Forevergreen are both very different shorts. One is hand-drawn while the other is CG with a wood carven aesthetic. One takes place in the Arctic while the other occurs against a vibrant green backdrop. Since each centers on a bear, though, voters are bound to compare them, which could lead to complications for both. Will two bear shorts be nominated? If only one breaks through, which will resonate more with voters? Could Snow Bear and Forevergreen split votes at the nominations stage, with both missing out? If both get nominated, could they still split votes when it comes to the win? It’s a little reminiscent of when Rhapsody Rabbit starring Bugs Bunny and The Cat Concerto with Tom and Jerry were both submitted for Oscar consideration. Only The Cat Concerto got nominated, going on to win.

^{Credit: Cardboard (J.P. Vine), Hurikán (Jan Saska)}

Snow Bear and Forevergreen could both benefit from featuring an adorable animal. The past three Oscar winners, In the Shadow of the Cypress, War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko, and The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, all had at least one animal that played a crucial role. This year’s Oscar shortlist includes a few other animal-centric shorts. Locksmith Animation (Ron’s Gone Wrong, That Christmas) could get their first nomination with J.P. Vine’s Cardboard, an imaginative short where a daddy pig and his two piglets adjust to their new surroundings. Technically, two pig-related films have been shortlisted for Oscar consideration this year. The other is Jan Saska’s Hurikán, the titular character being a humanoid boar.

^{Credit: The Shyness of Trees (Bingqing Shu, Maud Le Bras, Simin He, Loïck Du Plessis D'Argentré, Sofiia Chuikovska, Lina Han, Jiaxin Huang)}

Hurikán is being released through Miyu Distribution, which has emerged as an Oscar force in the past couple of years. Last year, Miyu got three nominations for Beautiful Men, Yuck!, and Wander to Wonder. The year before that, Miyu got nominated for Letter to a Pig and Pachyderme. Hurikán is one of three animated shorts that Miyu got shortlisted this year, the others being Autokar and The Shyness of Trees. With seven credited directors (Bingqing Shu, Maud Le Bras, Simin He, Loïck Du Plessis D'Argentré, Sofiia Chuikovska, Lina Han, Jiaxin Huang), The Shyness of Trees won a bronze Student Academy Award for animation. The shortlist usually includes at least one Student Academy Award winner, although it’s often the gold or silver recipient. This year, the gold winner (Tobias Eckerlin’s A Sparrow’s Song) and the silver winner (Lucas Ansel’s The 12 Inch Pianist) missed out on the shortlist, making The Shyness of Trees the first bronze winner to break through.

^{Credit: Autokar (Sylwia Szkiladz), I Died in Irpin (Anastasiia Falileieva), Butterfly (Florence Miailhe)}

Given Miyu’s recent track record, they could get all three of their shorts nominated. If only one makes an appearance on nominations morning, though, it’ll most likely be Sylwia Szkiladz’s Autokar. This autobiographical short tells a nostalgic yet relevant immigration story that’s sure to resonate with an increasingly international Academy. It’s also about the power of artistic expression, which provides an escape during uncertain times while helping us to better understand the world around us. Of course, Autokar isn’t the timely short in contention. Anastasiia Falileieva provided her perspective on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in I Died in Irpin. Florence Miailhe poignantly painted swimmer Alfred Nakache’s experiences across the Olympics and Holocaust in Butterfly (Papillon). The latter short was produced by Ron Dyens, who recently shared in the Best Animated Feature win for Flow.

^{Credit: Retirement Plan (John Kelly), Playing God (Matteo Burani), The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Maciek Szczerbowski, Chris Lavis), The Night Boots (Pierre-Luc Granjon), The Quinta’s Ghost (James A. Castillo)}

Shorts tied to The New Yorker also tend to do well at the Oscars, boding well for John Kelly’s Retirement Plan, which includes an infectious voiceover performance from Domhnall Gleeson. Craft is another factor to consider when predicting this category. There are two stop-motion films on the shortlist: The Girl Who Cried Pearls (Maciek Szczerbowski, Chris Lavis) and Playing God (Matteo Burani). Between the two, Playing God seems to have the most buzz, although it is the most twisted short in contention. Then again, the stop-motion Wander to Wonder and An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It signified that voters aren’t afraid to embrace darkness. In terms of craft, two other standouts are Pierre-Luc Granjon’s The Night Boots, which was produced with pinscreen animation, and James A. Castillo’s The Quinta’s Ghost, inspired by the Black Paintings of Spanish artist Francisco de Goya.

^{Credit: The Three Sisters (Konstantin Bronzit)}

Finally, there’s The Three Sisters, which has one of the year’s most interesting behind-the-scenes stories. When the shortlist was announced, many questioned who director Timur Kognov was. Apparently, a first-time filmmaker, as he had no other credits on his IMDb page. Aside from a FilmFreeway profile claiming that he graduated from an unnamed art school in Georgia, Timur Kognov had virtually no digital footprint. That’s because Timur Kognov is a pseudonym for Konstantin Bronzit, who was previously nominated at the Oscars for 2007’s Lavatory – Lovestory and 2014’s We Can't Live Without Cosmos. As an experiment, Bronzit submitted The Three Sisters to festivals to see if it would be judged differently. While it was harder getting his film accepted without a known name attached, The Three Sisters still won Best Animated Short at the Oscar-qualifying Santa Barbara International Film Festival. Bronzit kept up the ruse heading into awards season, revealing Timur Kognov’s true identity after the Oscar shortlist was announced.

There’s a strong argument to be made for all fifteen of these films, but based on buzz, visibility, and distribution, these are my predictions for Best Animated Short:

Autokar

Éiru

Playing God

Retirement Plan

Snow Bear

Runner-Up: Butterfly

Dark Horse: Forevergreen

While the above films all offer a mix of craft, heart, and social relevance that the Academy usually goes for, it wouldn’t be surprising if voters vibed with Hurikán’s titular character, The Shyness of Trees’ tear-jerking ending, The Girl Who Cried Pearls’ fabled storytelling, the creepy comfort of The Night Boots, The Quinta’s Ghost’s nightmarish artistry, the cute characters in Cardboard, I Died in Irpin’s harrowing true story, or the visual comedy of The Three Sisters. There are no guarantees in this category. While many believe this is a race between Éiru and Snow Bear, a Forevergreen vote split can still cost the latter a nomination. The one genuine shock would be if Éiru didn’t make the final five. Considering that Disney’s Once Upon a Studio didn’t get nominated a few years ago, though, it wouldn’t be the first time a presumed frontrunner from an established studio missed out.

Industry professionals can watch all fifteen shortlisted films on The Animation Showcase's streaming platform. The nominees for the 98th Academy Awards will be announced on January 22, 2026.

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1 and 2. Available Now!