^{Credit: Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)}

Before my local press screening of Fantastic Four: First Steps, my colleagues and I were given a sneak peek at the trailer for Avatar: Fire and Ash (in 3D, naturally). For any other upcoming film, getting a press invite for a trailer would be most irregular. For an Avatar movie, it’s customary. The Way of Water was given the same fanfare three years earlier, with its trailer also being screened in advance. Sitting down to watch the Fire and Ash trailer, I wasn’t sure what eye candy awaited. All I knew was that there isn’t a world where this doesn’t win the Best Visual Effects Oscar.

Now is the time of year when awards experts make their “insanely early Oscar predictions.” Some races remain up in the air like Best Animated Feature. Others already have a consensus five, such as Best Original Song. Even in that category, it’s hard to say what will win several months out. If there’s one race we can call right now, though, it’s Fire and Ash winning the Avatar franchise its third Best Visual Effects Oscar. The first trailer only reinforces this inevitability. 

While only a taste, the trailer is the equivalent of a volcano about to erupt. Without giving away much of the plot, it promises a conflict between our heroes and the “Ash People,” who dwell within Pandora’s volcano region. Whether showcasing the prosperous Easter sea where the Metkayina Clan reside or a barren volcano landscape, Cameron knows how to immerse us in a world we want to explore every inch of. Cameron also once again demonstrates that he’s one of the few filmmakers who know how to shoot in 3D, making us part of the experience. Cameron always cooks, and there’s little doubt the third Avatar will turn up the heat, at least in terms of visuals.

The original Avatar and The Way of Water were both nominated for the Best Picture Oscar. If Fire and Ash continues this trend, Avatar will be the third franchise to get three movies nominated, the other two being The Godfather and The Lord of the Rings. We won’t know until December whether Fire and Ash should be taken seriously as a Best Picture contender. In the event Fire and Ash exceeds expectations, it could pull a Return of the King and win the Academy’s highest honor. Fire and Ash also might underwhelm, but so did The Godfather Part III, which got nominated regardless. Avatar doesn’t have the momentum of The Godfather series, which won with its first two entries. In a year that hasn’t given us many Best Picture hopefuls, though, Fire and Ash making the Oscar 10 is a practical prediction.

In any case, Fire and Ash will be leaving the ceremony with one award. The real question is what the other four nominees will be. Despite never winning, the MCU is the category’s most nominated franchise at 14. Fantastic Four: First Steps should bring nomination 15 with a retro-futuristic fusion that stands out as one of the MCU’s best-looking entries to date. It’s certainly a step up from the past three theatrical Fantastic Four movies, none of which even made the Best Visual Effects shortlists. Marvel will likely be joined by James Gunn’s Superman, which launched the rival DC Universe. The last Superman movie to be nominated for Best Visual Effects was 2006’s Superman Returns. The franchise’s only entry to win was Richard Donner’s 1978 classic, although that was a Special Achievement Award rather than a competitive race.

After its predecessor got nominated last year, Wicked: For Good should be a safe bet. That final spot could go in a few different directions, but this might be where Bong Joon Ho’s Mickey 17 gets some love. While not a financial success, neither was last year’s Better Man or The Creator before that. In a year full of dual performances, Robert Pattinson delivered one of the best, which wouldn’t have been possible without the seamless effects. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, Predator: Badlands, and Edgar Wright’s The Running Man are a few other potential nominees. As far as winners go, though, Avatar is bound to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of its competitors.

Best Visual Effects Predictions:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

Superman

Wicked: For Good

Runner-Ups:

Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning

Predator: Badlands

The Running Man

Thunderbolts*

Tron: Ares

Dark Horses That Could Make the Shortlist:

Captain America: Brave New World

The Electric State

F1: The Movie

How to Train Your Dragon

Jurassic World: Rebirth

The Legend of Ochi

Lilo & Stitch

A Minecraft Movie

Paddington in Peru 

Sinners

And if they’re desperate, Snow White…?

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1 and 2. Available Now!