^{Credit: Star Wars: Visions (Disney+), South Park (Comedy Central), Smiling Friends (Adult Swim)}

On July 23, 2025, South Park's 27th season premiered. Few knew what to expect following the ongoing negotiations with the show’s parent company, which culminated in Matt Stone and Parker walking away with a $1.5 billion deal. That didn’t mean the creators would be playing it safe as Paramount cozied up to the current administration. In the season premiere, “Sermon on the 'Mount,” the Canadian prime minister storms into the Oval Office, comparing the president to a “dictator from the Middle East.” Donald Trump then spins around in his chair, looking and sounding a lot like South Park’s incarnation of Saddam Hussein. 

Also like Saddam, South Park’s version of Trump crawls into bed with Satan. From the moment the image of Trump cuddling an annoyed Satan went viral, South Park has been the frontrunner for the Outstanding Animated Program Emmy. Throughout this past awards season, South Park won Critics’ Choice Awards, got nominated at the Annies, and even became the first animated series to score a Best Episodic Comedy nod at the PGA Awards. Trey Parker accepted an award at the 19th Television Academy Honors as well. South Park was also the most-nominated animated series this year, picking up nominations for the song “Christian Woman” and Parker’s voiceover work as Satan. Matt Stone also probably would’ve been nominated for voicing Trump had he been submitted. 

South Park already has five wins in this category. While its last victory was back in 2013 for “Raising the Bar,” “Sermon on the 'Mount” seems destined to end that dry spell. Then again, many thought South Park would make a comeback in 2021 for “The Pandemic Special,” but the Emmy went to Genndy Tartakovsky's Primal for "Plague of Madness" - which also ironically mirrored COVID. Primal isn’t nominated this year, but could another show upset South Park? Among this year’s lineup are three other past winners: Bob’s Burgers for "Grand Pre Pre Pre Opening,” Rick and Morty for "There's Something About Morty," and The Simpsons for "Homer? A Cracker Bro?”. Of those three, Bob’s Burgers may have an edge, having submitted its landmark 300th episode.  

Yet, the nominees in the best positions to beat South Park might be two newcomers to the category. Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of this year’s Emmy season was Smiling Friends getting in for "Le Voyage Incroyable de Monsieur Grenouille." A nomination for the cult Adult Swim show seemed like a pipe dream, as the TV Academy never recognized it in the past. Creators Zach Hadel and Michael Cusack were as surprised as anyone. In a Hollywood Reporter interview, Hadel recalled saying, “Holy crap,” when the news broke. 

There might have been an urgency to nominate Smiling Friends, as Hadel and Cusack made the abrupt decision to end the show after three seasons - despite previously being renewed through Season 5. In the same Hollywood Reporter article, Hadel and Cusack didn’t rule out a return, with the former saying the odds fluctuate daily between 20% and 80%. For now, this may be the last opportunity to give Smiling Friends an Emmy. Hadel and Cusack mentioned that they don’t expect to win. Of course, they weren’t anticipating a nomination either. 

While many are eyeing Smiling Friends to pull an upset, Star Wars: Visions might be the underdog to watch out for. For the past few years, the Emmy has gone to the show with the most impressive animation. In addition to Primal, Arcane won for both of its seasons, Blue Eye Samurai won for its first, and The Simpsons won for "Treehouse of Horror XXXIII," which featured a stunning Death Note parody. Of this year’s nominees, Star Wars: Visions stands out with the episode “BLACK,” which Shin'ya Ôhira of Studio Ghibli directed. The episode, told from a stormtrooper’s perspective, is told entirely through visuals, along with its sound design and jazzy, Cowboy Bebop-esque music. With virtually no dialogue, the episode puts the vision in Star Wars: Visions, exploring how this traumatized stormtrooper has become one of many casualties in this star war. 

Star Wars: Visions was previously nominated in the retired Outstanding Short Form Animated Program category. This year, Takashi Okazaki will receive an Outstanding Individual Achievement in Animation Emmy for the Visions episode “The Duel: Payback.” If voters are basing their picks on the quality of the animation, Visions could come out on top. If writing and social reliance are prioritized, though, South Park should be headed for a victory lap. Then again, Smiling Friends has hilarious writing and a unique blend of animation styles. So, maybe this race is closer than people assume. That said, South Park seems close to a lock. 

Outstanding Animated Program Final Predictions:

1. South Park: "Sermon on the 'Mount"

2. Star Wars: Visions: “BLACK” 

3. Smiling Friends: "Le Voyage Incroyable de Monsieur Grenouille"

4. Bob’s Burgers: "Grand Pre-Pre-Pre-Opening" 

5. Rick and Morty: "There's Something About Morty"

6. The Simpsons: "Homer? A Cracker Bro?"

The Outstanding Animated Program Emmy will be presented on Sunday, September 6, 2026.

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1, 2, and 3. Available Now!