^{Credit: Common Side Effects (Adult Swim), Arcane (Netflix)}

Perhaps the most pleasant surprise among the 77th Primetime Emmy nominations was seeing Common Side Effects in the Outstanding Animated Program lineup. There was little doubt the other four nominees would be Arcane, Bob’s Burgers, Love, Death + Robots, and The Simpsons, but that fifth spot was up for grabs. Invincible was the default choice, despite missing for its past two seasons. Some predicted that voters would go back to Big Mouth, giving the raunchy coming-of-age series a farewell hug. There was also hope that voters might embrace an anime like Solo Leveling or a long-overdue series like Harley Quinn. I wrestled with what to predict, but at the eleventh hour, I went with Common Side Effects, which garnered a 100% positive score on Rotten Tomatoes and has only been gaining more buzz since premiering on Adult Swim last February.

Joseph Bennett was fresh off a nomination for Scavengers Reign last year. Goodwill carried over to Common Side Effects, which Bennett created with Steve Hely (Veep, The Office). It’s the second nomination in a row for animation studio Green Street Pictures, which also worked on Scavengers Reign with Titmouse. The executive producer team includes Mike Judge and Greg Daniels, who shared in an Outstanding Animated Program Emmy 26 years ago for the King of the Hill episode, “And They Call It Bobby Love.” While Common Side Effects has talent in spades, quality was at the core of its campaign, capturing the zeitgeist with humor, relatable characters, and social commentary.

The series revolves around a magic blue mushroom that can cure anything… except corporate greed. While Big Pharma is the main target, Common Side Effects acknowledges that the system in place can corrupt almost any individual, giving the mushroom a Ring of Power allure. Like Scavengers Reign, Common Side Effects sees humanity clash with nature. Yet, this show is more about human nature, proving as philosophical as it is funny. Although the commentary is clear, it prioritizes entertainment over preaching.

^{Credit: Common Side Effects (Adult Swim)}

Some might consider the nomination to be the win for Common Side Effects, but the series stands a strong chance of going all the way. Of course, it’ll have to overcome the category’s frontrunner, Arcane. Three years ago, the League of Legends adaptation won for “When These Walls Come Tumbling Down.” For its long-awaited second season, the crew has submitted the series finale, “The Dirt Under Your Nails.” Although the season packed two Bibles’ worth of material into just nine episodes, Arcane built to an emotionally satisfying ending that leaves every major character in the right place. If Arcane takes Outstanding Animated Program, it’ll be the first show in this category’s history to win every year it was nominated. Granted, Arcane only had two seasons, but it'd still be undefeated.

At this year’s Annies, Arcane dominated with seven awards, winning in every category it was nominated for. That said, there was one category Arcane didn’t get into at the Annies: Best Mature Audience Animated Television/Broadcast Production, which went to Bob’s Burgers for “They Slug Horses, Don’t They?” This is the same episode that Bob’s Burgers submitted at the Emmys. A feuding Tina and Louise are at the center of this episode, a touching story of sisterhood elevated by its nostalgic animation and sentimental music. Nora Smith’s song, “Drift Too Far,” was submitted for Outstanding Music and Lyrics, but it wasn’t nominated.

Bob’s Burgers has already won the Emmy twice for “Mazel-Tina” in 2014 and “Bob Actually” in 2017.  Only two ongoing animated series have won this category more than two wins: The Simpsons (12) and South Park (5). Four Garfield specials also won back in the day. Bob’s Burgers could join this exclusive club. For nearly a decade and a half, it’s been one of the most consistently funny animated shows, getting nominated at the Emmys every year other than its first season. Considering that its last win was eight years ago, though, it’d feel a little random for voters to go back to Bob’s now.

That said, it also felt random when The Simpsons won in 2019 for "Mad About the Toy." It seemed like voters were done with The Simpsons, which hadn’t won since “Eternal Moonshine of the Simpson Mind” in 2008. Some felt “Mad About the Toy” benefited from vote-splitting, going up against fresher shows like Adventure Time, Big Mouth, and BoJack Horseman. It wasn’t a fluke, though, as The Simpsons won again in 2023 for “Treehouse of Horror XXXIII.” This win was less surprising, as the Halloween special had gone viral with this visually arresting Death Note parody. This year, The Simpsons team submitted another episode that made headlines: the series finale, “Bart’s Birthday.”

The “finale” is actually the season premiere, hosted by former Simpsons writer Conan O’Brien. In a role Tory McClure likely would’ve filled if Phil Hartman were still with us, Conan explains that The Simpsons is finally ending with an episode generated by an AI called Hack-GPT. Bart essentially finds himself in a Twilight Zone episode where every Simpsons character is getting a sendoff/spinoff showcase. The eternally 10-year-old Bart isn’t ready to turn 11, though, rebelling against the reality that the AI has manufactured. Instead of a finale, the episode sends a clear message: after more than three decades, why stop now?

In addition to parodying other finales, the episode is an exercise in meta humor with deep cut references for Simpsonsholics. It also addresses the age-old criticism that the show peaked 25 years ago. That might be true, but if “Bart’s Birthday” is any indication, it’s that there can still be value to modern Simpsons episodes. Some might even be worthy of Emmys. “Bart’s Birthday” could earn The Simpsons its lucky thirteenth in this category.

Of the five nominees, Love, Death + Robots is the least likely to win. That sounds odd, seeing how Love, Death + Robots won every year it was nominated in the retired Short Form Animated Program. In the standard Animated Program category, though, a short-form series has never won. It doesn’t help that Love, Death + Robots’ fourth season was the most divisive. On Rotten Tomatoes, it got a 100% critics score, but its audience score fell below 40%. The crew did submit one of the season’s higher-rated episodes on IMDb, “Spider Rose.” Directed by Jennifer Yuh Nelson, the episode showcases the jaw-dropping animation this anthology is known for. However, on a narrative level, the episode drops us in the middle of an overstuffed story and then ends somewhat abruptly.  

^{Credit: Love, Death + Robots FYC Page (Netflix)}

Love, Death + Robots could still pick up a few Emmys in the Individual Achievement category, where Netflix campaigned six artists on their FYC site. Netflix also pushed six Arcane artists for consideration. For its first season, Arcane picked up three additional Emmys for Individual Achievement in Animation. If Season 2 can pull off a similar feat, it’ll be hard to bet against Arcane in Outstanding Animated Program. Another indicator would be if Arcane won Outstanding Sound Editing for an Animated Program, where Love, Death + Robots is nominated as well.

^{Credit: Arcane FYC Page (Netflix)}

While conventional wisdom tells me this is Arcane’s to lose, there’s a strong argument to be made for Common Side Effects. Its themes regarding the American health care system were timely when the show entered production. Common Side Effects has only grown more relevant, with Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” expected to leave millions desperately seeking insurance. Of course, even if there were a mushroom that could cure all illnesses, it might not be a simple fix. Protagonist Marshall begins to see this in “Cliff’s Edge,” the episode submitted to the Emmys. Not only is distributing the mushroom to the masses easier said than one, but there may be some less than desirable side effects. 

“Cliff’s Edge” is among the season’s most visually interesting episodes, with one psychedelic sequence that calls a scene from Akira to mind. If “Cliff’s Edge” has a downside, it’s being the season’s penultimate episode. Common Side Effects isn’t like The Simpsons or Bob’s Burgers, where viewers can dive in at any time. With an overarching plot, you’ll appreciate Common Side Effects more if you watch it from the beginning. That said, if voters are compelled to binge-watch Common Side Effects, they’ll be more inclined to vote for it. Being such an addictive show, you can’t stop at just one hit. While voters tend to lean toward standalone episodes in this category, serialization didn’t hurt Arcane or last year’s winner, Blue Eye Samurai.

Arcane and Blue Eye Samurai are the only shows from the past decade to win for their first seasons. Excluding miniseries like Over the Garden Wall and one-offs like Prep & Landing, the last freshman series to win was Pinky and the Brain in 1996 for its Christmas special. Common Side Effects might lack the same levels of buzz that Arcane and Blue Eye Samurai had going into the Emmys. Of this year’s nominees, though, it’s a standout. It’s not a straight-up comedy like The Simpsons or Bob’s Burgers. It’s not a straight-up drama like Arcane or Love, Death + Robots. It’s a blue mushroom in a bag of oranges, which is always beneficial when voters are considering originality.

Like “Cliff’s Edge,” I leave you on a cliffhanger with no clear outcome. For now, though, here are my current predictions:

1.     Arcane - “The Dirt Under Your Nails”

2.     Common Side Effects – “Cliff’s Edge”

3.     The Simpsons – “Bart’s Birthday”

4.     Bob’s Burgers – “They Slug Horses, Don’t They?”

5.     Love, Death + Robots – “Spider Rose”

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1 and 2. Available Now!