^{Credit: The Secret Agent (Neon), Sinners (Warner Bros.), KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix, Sony Pictures Animation), One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.), Hamnet (Focus Features)}

We’ve been covering the Best Animated Feature and Short Oscar races year-round at Cartoon Contender. With the 98th Academy Awards less than a week away, we’re going through all 24 of the categories today. Let’s start with one we’ve already talked about at great length: 

Best Animated Short
Butterfly 
Forevergreen 
The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Retirement Plan 
The Three Sisters 

I did a deep dive into what I think is winning Best Animated Short, which you can read here. In a nutshell, Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls may be the smart bets given their impeccable craft. If voters go with what moved them the most, though, Retirement Plan seems like it could pull off a surprise. The fact that actor Domhnall Gleeson has been doing FYC interviews with director John Kelly only helps. 

My Prediction: Retirement Plan
My Preference: Butterfly 

Best Documentary Short
All the Empty Rooms 
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud 
Children No More: "Were and Are Gone" 
The Devil Is Busy
Perfectly a Strangeness 

Four devastating shorts with timely subject matter… and one about donkeys. Honestly, being the apple in a bag of oranges could help Perfectly a Strangeness. Of the documentary shorts, All the Empty Rooms is the most impactful. It may not be the first doc to touch upon school shootings, but Joshua Seftel explores an aspect we rarely consider: what happens to the rooms that the children will tragically never return to?

My Prediction: All the Empty Rooms
My Preference: All the Empty Rooms

Best Live-Action Short
Butcher's Stain 
A Friend of Dorothy 
Jane Austen's Period Drama 
The Singers 
Two People Exchanging Saliva 

Jane Austen’s Period Drama is easily my favorite of the bunch, although the Academy is unlikely to award a comedy where the period isn’t what you think. Two People Exchanging Saliva has the most distinct style and unique premise, showing the potential to be a feature. If voters are in the mood for something more feel-good, maybe they’ll swing toward A Friend of Dorothy or The Singers. From a filmmaking and storytelling standpoint, though, there’s more to admire in Two People Exchanging Saliva. 

My Prediction: Two People Exchanging Saliva
My Preference: Jane Austen’s Period Drama 

Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme 
One Battle After Another
Sinners 
Train Dreams 

In Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso’s cinematography tells us even more than Will Patton’s narration. While its Critics' Choice win gives me hope it might pull through at the Oscars, it’d likely be the first lone Best Cinematography victor since Road to Perdition in 2003. Autumn Durald Arkapaw could become the first woman of color to win here for Sinners. Of course, the BAFTA went to Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another, the Best Picture frontrunner. As such, this should be part of One Battle’s win package. 

My Prediction: One Battle After Another 
My Preference: Train Dreams 

Best Film Editing
F1 
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another 
Sentimental Value 
Sinners 

F1 seemed inclined to pull a Ford v Ferrari after winning CCA. Then came the ACE Eddies, where F1 lost to Sinners for Best Edited Feature Film (Drama). Meanwhile, One Battle After Another won in the comedy category, going on to take the BAFTA as well. For the past three years, the Best Editing winner has lined up with Best Picture. One Battle After Another should continue this trend for that climactic car chase alone. 

My Prediction: One Battle After Another
My Preference: One Battle After Another

Best Production Design 
Frankenstein
Hamnet 
Marty Supreme 
One Battle After Another 
Sinners 

If Wicked: For Good had been nominated here (or any of the following three categories), this might’ve been a more interesting race. Even if the Wicked sequel were here, Frankenstein's wins at the Art Directors Guild Awards, BAFTA, and CCA make this one of the easiest categories to predict. 

My Prediction: Frankenstein
My Preference: Frankenstein

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein 
Kokuho 
Sinners 
The Smashing Machine 
The Ugly Stepsister 

Cool to see Kokuho and The Ugly Stepsister here, but this race was pretty much over from the minute Guillermo del Toro announced he was making a Frankenstein movie. The creature aside, did you realize that Mia Goth has a dual role here!?

My Prediction: Frankenstein
My Preference: Frankenstein

Best Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash 
Frankenstein 
Hamnet 
Marty Supreme
Sinners 

Of these three categories, Frankenstein’s is perhaps the most vulnerable here, but that’s only because Sinners is in a stronger position to win Best Picture and Ruth E. Carter has pulled surprises before. That didn’t stop Frankenstein from winning CCA, BAFTA, and the Costume Designers Guild Award. Why would it stop now? 

My Prediction: Frankenstein
My Preference: Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1 
Jurassic World Rebirth 
The Lost Bus 
Sinners 

Avatar: Fire and Ash was winning this Oscar from the moment Disney locked in its release date. Maybe someday an Avatar movie will lose in this category, just as Star Wars and The Lord of the Rings were eventually overshadowed. Avatar’s streak isn’t ending this year, however. 

My Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
My Preference: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Casting
Hamnet 
Marty Supreme 
One Battle After Another 
The Secret Agent 
Sinners 

This should be one of the trickier categories to predict, being a new one with no past stats to go off of. Yet, it feels so easy to predict Sinners. It’s the most diverse ensemble with a mix of movie stars and character actors who all perfectly fit their roles. One Battle After Another shouldn’t be discounted with its A-list cast, complete with newcomer Chase Infiniti. Since Sinners’ cast was able to overcome One Battle’s at the Actor Awards, its casting director should be able to do the same at the Oscars. 

My Prediction: Sinners
My Preference: Sinners 

Best Original Score
Bugonia 
Frankenstein 
Hamnet 
One Battle After Another
Sinners 

If there’s one award Sinners is guaranteed, it’s for Ludwig Göransson’s score. Some may find it unfair that Göransson will win his third Oscar while Jonny Greenwood loses on his third nomination. Where Greenwood’s One Battle score can come off as distracting, though, Göransson’s is the life force behind Sinners. 

My Prediction: Sinners
My Preference: Sinners 

Best Original Song
"Dear Me" from Diane Warren: Relentless 
"Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters 
"I Lied to You" from Sinners 
"Sweet Dreams of Joy" from Viva Verdi!
"Train Dreams" from Train Dreams 

I did another deep dive on whether “I Lied to You” can upset a juggernaut like “Golden.” There’s an outside chance, as “I Lied to You” might’ve been the scene of the year. Yet, “Golden” was clearly the song that defined 2025, winning a Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice Award, and Grammy. It was even performed at the BAFTAs, which doesn’t have a song category. 

My Prediction: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters 
My Preference: "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters 

Best Sound
F1 
Frankenstein 
One Battle After Another 
Sinners
Sirāt

I’d love to see Sirāt pull a Zone of Interest-esque surprise. The difference is that The Zone of Interest was a Best Picture nominee, giving it the edge. Sirāt’s Best International Feature nomination may give it a slight boost, but I have a hard time believing it’ll overcome four Best Picture nominees. Since F1 won at CCA and the BAFTAs, this should be its lone win, ala Top Gun: Maverick. 

My Prediction: F1
My Preference: Sirāt

Best Original Screenplay
Blue Moon
It Was Just an Accident 
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners

Best Original Screenplay seemed like it might be a close race back when everyone thought It Was Just an Accident was a lock for nominations in Best Director and Picture. Accident underperformed, however, and no, I don’t think what’s happening in Iran right now is going to influence voters. Sinners easily won at WGA, and if it could win at BAFTA, too, Ryan Coogler should finally be able to call himself an Oscar winner. 

My Prediction: Sinners
My Preference: Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia 
Frankenstein
Hamnet 
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams

One might’ve expected Hamnet to put up more of a fight here, but with wins at CCA, BAFTA, and WGA, One Battle After Another will bring Paul Thomas Anderson one of multiple Oscars tonight. Even if something shocking happens in Best Director and Picture, Anderson is at least winning here with no Sinners standing in its way. 

My Prediction: One Battle After Another
My Preference: Hamnet 

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro: One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi: Frankenstein 
Delroy Lindo: Sinners
Sean Penn: One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård: Sentimental Value

Heading into the season, Sean Penn seemed like the frontrunner until Benicio del Toro started winning awards from critics groups. The plot thickened when Jacob Elordi won at CCA. Considering that Emma Stone won Best Actress for Poor Things a few years ago, it wasn’t far-fetched to think that Elordi could win for a similar creature performance. Frankenstein is already winning all of the same tech categories as Poor Things. Skarsgård took the lead after winning the Golden Globe, and he could’ve sealed the deal had he won at BAFTA. Yet, that award went to Penn, bringing things full circle. Penn went on to win the Actor Award, where Skarsgård wasn’t even nominated. Of course, Delroy Lindo barely showed up anywhere before scoring a surprise Oscar nomination. This makes Lindo an untested factor, meaning a Marcia Gay Harden-esque upset isn’t out of the question. Ironically, Lindo has had more of a presence on the awards trail than Penn, who didn’t show up to accept either of his two big wins. My brain says Penn will win his third Oscar, although my gut says someone else could surprise. My gut isn’t saying who, however. So, it’s Penn. Skarsgård would get my vote for his nuanced portrayal of a father who can only express his love for his daughters through his filmmaking. Alas, subtlety doesn’t win you an Oscar, and Penn gives the flashiest performance. Hopefully he shows up to accept the Oscar (and doesn’t smelt it). 

My Prediction: Sean Penn: One Battle After Another
My Preference: Stellan Skarsgård: Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning: Sentimental Value 
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas: Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan: Weapons 
Wunmi Mosaku: Sinners
Teyana Taylor: One Battle After Another

Madigan has the critics on her side, winning at CCA, as well as the industry, winning the Actor Award. The issue is that she’s the lone nominee for Weapons. To ensure an Oscar win, she’d have to sweep throughout the season like Julianne Moore did for Still Alice. Madigan wasn’t nominated at BAFTA and lost the Globe to Teyana Taylor, who seemed to be gaining momentum as the frontrunner. That was until Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA, officially making this a three-horse race. As wonderful as the Sentimental Value ladies are, neither has the precursor prizes needed at this point. I think Sinners will win at least one acting Oscar, and Supporting Actress makes the most sense. After an impactful introduction, Taylor disappears for most of One Battle, while Madigan doesn’t show up until later than Weapons. For me, Madigan is the standout with a performance in the spirit of Ruth Gordon’s Oscar-winning turn in Rosemary’s Baby. At least Rosemary’s Baby had a screenplay nomination to go with its Best Supporting Actress win, however. I’m just not convinced Madison can take down multiple actresses from Best Picture nominees. Between Mosaku and Taylor, Mosaku plays the more empathetic character and has more of a presence throughout. It’ll be tight, but enough voters should sing Mosaku's praises. 

My Prediction: Wunmi Mosaku: Sinners
My Preference: Amy Madigan: Weapons 

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet: Marty Supreme 
Leonardo DiCaprio: One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke: Blue Moon 
Michael B. Jordan: Sinners 
Wagner Moura: The Secret Agent 

This may be the closest race of the night. After Chalamet won the Globe and Critics’ Choice Award, Best Actor seemed like it’d be one of the easier categories to predict. Chalamet always had several hurdles to overcome, however. Namely, he may be viewed as too young to win Best Actor, at 30. He’d be the second-youngest Best Actor winner after Adrien Brody for The Pianist. That said, age wasn’t a detriment to Brody, but he played a deeply sympathetic character. Although Marty Mauser is destined to become an iconic character, many think he’s an egotistical little POS. That’s leaked over to Chalamet’s campaign, with some finding him as obnoxious as Marty. Chalamet is still among a rare breed: a modern movie star whose name alone can pack a theater, making Marty Supreme a hit for A24. Age also might not be a significant factor. Robert Aramayo is only slightly older than Chalamet, and he won the BAFTA for I Swear. 

That said, a BAFTA win really would’ve helped Chalamet. Losing to Aramayo isn’t a huge deal, as he’s not eligible for the Oscar this year. This only left the Actor Awards for Chalamet to make his last stand as Oscar voters marked their ballots. The Actor Award ultimately went to Michael B. Jordan, making this race harder to predict than ever. It’s not even a two-horse race between Chalamet and Jordan, as Wagner Moura also won a Golden Globe for The Secret Agent. Some might write off Moura since he wasn’t nominated for the BAFTA or the Actor. Neither was Fernanda Torres, who could’ve become the first Brazilian person to win an acting Oscar for I’m Still Here last year. The difference is that Torres was going up against Mikey Madison, who was in the Best Picture frontrunner. It didn’t make sense to award Anora without also recognizing Anora herself. 

This year, Best Picture is likely going to be either One Battle or Sinners. Even if it is One Battle, Leonardo DiCaprio hasn’t won any televised awards. Maybe if he didn’t get his overdue Oscar for The Revenant almost a decade ago, there’d be more of a push to get Leo the statuette. The Academy doesn’t seem to be in a rush to give him a second Oscar. If Sinners wins Best Picture, it’d make sense for Jordan to come along for the ride. At the Globes, though, Moura beat Jordan in the Best Actor - Drama category. Chalamet won in the comedy category. So, if Moura could beat Jordan for the Globe and Jordan beat Chalamet for the Actor Award, Moura could theoretically beat Chalamet for the Oscar. Then again, all three were nominated at Critics’ Choice, where Chalamet won. 

The last actor to win the Oscar with just the Globe and Critics’ Choice was Sean Penn for Mystic River. That year was also seen as a three-horse race, with Johnny Depp winning the Actor Award while Bill Murray took the BAFTA. So, Chalamet could pull it off. The difference is that Penn was in his 40s and on his fourth nomination. The industry was ready to award Penn. That might not be the case for Chalamet, who’s going up against three older actors who’ve never won. The overdue narrative never materialized for Ethan Hawke, but Moura could be the veteran who finally gets his due. The Secret Agent performed better with the Oscars than the BAFTAs or Actor Awards, the latter of which completely slept on performances not in the English language. With nominations for Best Picture, Best International Feature, and even Best Casting, there might be enough love for the film to carry Moura to a win. 

I realize that Moura has a lot working against him. He just has the Globe win, and Roberto Benigni is the only person who has won the Best Actor Oscar for a non-English language performance. Moura isn’t the only one with major stats to overcome. Jordan just has the Actor Award, which has yet to translate to an Oscar win. Jordan would also be the first person to win for playing a vampire, although Fredric March did win for 1931’s Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde - another dual performance in a horror picture. While Chalamet makes sense based on precursor awards, Jordan and Moura seem more respected in the industry. Jordan is in the stronger film overall, and his Actor Awards speech couldn’t have come at a better time. Yet, with Moura’s seniority, his charming presence on the campaign trail, his daunting task of carrying a three-hour movie, not to mention the increasing international voting body, I believe he has a hairy leg up on the competition. 

My Prediction: Wagner Moura: The Secret Agent
My Preference: Timothée Chalamet: Marty Supreme 

Best Actress 
Jessie Buckley: Hamnet 
Rose Byrne: If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson: Song Sung Blue 
Renate Reinsve: Sentimental Value 
Emma Stone: Bugonia 

Well, at least one acting race is a lock. On the heels of CCA, Globes, BAFTA, and the Actor Awards, Jessie Buckley is pulling off a full sweep, as she should. Another reason she’s winning? Animator Tom Sito endorsed her performance! 

My Prediction: Jessie Buckley: Hamnet 
My Preference: Jessie Buckley: Hamnet 

Best Director
Chloé Zhao: Hamnet
Josh Safdie: Marty Supreme
Paul Thomas Anderson: One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier: Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler: Sinners

Even if One Battle loses Best Picture (which remains a big if), Paul Thomas Anderson losing Best Director would be the jaw-dropper of the night. After winning at CCA, Globes, BAFTA, and DGA, one of our greatest living directors is finally getting his moment. As deserving as Anderson is, it’s disappointing that the Academy is almost 100 years old and no Black directors have won. No matter what happens here, at least the screenplay categories have both Anderson and Coogler covered. 

My Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson: One Battle After Another
My Preference: Paul Thomas Anderson: One Battle After Another

Best Documentary Feature
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light 
Cutting Through Rocks 
Mr Nobody Against Putin 
The Perfect Neighbor 

The Documentary Branch tends to snub the favorite. So, getting the nomination might’ve been the biggest challenge for The Perfect Neighbor to overcome. The Netflix doc has just enough precursor support, with wins at CCA and the Film Independent Spirit Awards. It lost DGA to 2000 Meters to Andriivka and PGA to My Mom Jayne, but neither of those docs is nominated. The stiffest competition is Mr Nobody Against Putin, which won at BAFTA. Given its social relevance, viral success, and emotional power, The Perfect Neighbor still has an advantage. Even if Perfect Neighbor loses, Geeta Gandbhir could still potentially win in the short category for The Devil Is Busy. 

My Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor 
My Preference: The Perfect Neighbor 

Best International Feature
It Was Just an Accident 
The Secret Agent 
Sentimental Value 
Sirāt 
The Voice of Hind Rajab 

Sentimental Value seemed like it would sweep the season after winning the Grand Prix at Cannes. After The Secret Agent won at CCA and the Globes, though, it became less clear-cut. Sentimental Value rebounded on Oscar nominations morning, getting four of its actors in with nine nominations overall. While The Secret Agent didn’t receive as many nominations, it still got into Best Picture alongside Sentimental Value. Secret Agent also overperformed with its four bids, including a Best Casting nomination, one category that Sentimental Value was strangely left out of. Sentimental Value continued its comeback at BAFTA, where it won Best Film Not in the English Language, albeit without any other awards. 

Many have compared this race to last year’s between I’m Still Here and Emilia Pérez. The correlation between I’m Still Here and Secret Agent adds up, both being Brazilian films. Sentimental Value is not Emilia Pérez, however. There’s been no backlash against Sentimental Value, and its cast is controversy-free. It’s worth noting that the last country to win back-to-back Oscars here was Denmark in 1987/88. Sentimental Value also has a sizable stat to overcome, as no film from Norway has ever won in this category. Then again, most Academy members probably aren’t basing their vote on the country. It’s not like they’re Olympic figure skating judges!

If I weren’t predicting Wagner Moura to win Best Actor, it’d be easy for me to say Sentimental Value. While Secret Agent’s Best Casting nomination is a plus, Sentimental Value is up for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. Last year, there was a surge of passion that propelled I’m Still Here to a win. I feel a similar passion surrounding Moura, but not necessarily The Secret Agent itself, which can be a slow and strange burn to some (myself included). Moura’s performance is arguably the main reason The Secret Agent got into Best Picture, which is partially why I’m predicting him in Best Actor. As an overall film, there seems to be more admiration for Sentimental Value. It’s also more accessible for this voting body, being about a director and the actresses in this life. 

My Prediction: Sentimental Value 
My Preference: Sentimental Value 

Best Animated Feature
Arco
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters 
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain 
Zootopia 2 

KPop Demon Hunters is unstoppable. Here’s why. 

My Prediction: KPop Demon Hunters 
My Preference: KPop Demon Hunters 

Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent 
Sentimental Value 
Sinners 
Train Dreams

Winning top prizes at BAFTA, PGA, DGA, Golden Globes, and even the Gotham “Independent” Film Awards, it’s hard to bet against One Battle After Another. While I don’t have the guts to predict a Sinners spoiler, there are two enormous factors to consider. Sinners didn’t just get the most nominations this year. It broke the all-time record with 16 overall. Of course, it’s not like Sinners completely eclipsed One Battle’s thirteen nominations, the same number of nods Oppenheimer got, and two more than Everything Everywhere All at Once received. More importantly, Sinners won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards just as Oscar voters were marking their ballots. 

In the past ten years, there have been a few films that surprised with Best Picture wins, most notably CODA, Parasite, and Moonlight. CODA and Parasite both won the Best Cast Actor Award, marking turning points on their road to the Oscars. CODA also won at PGA, giving it an extra Oscar boost over perceived frontrunner The Power of the Dog. 1917 might’ve won more precursor prizes, but you could sense the passion for Parasite surging at just the right time. The same can be said when La La Land lost to Moonlight, which also carried social relevance at a dire time. Both of this year’s Best Picture favorites are timely, although One Battle may be the most urgent reflection of our political landscape. 

Going back to the Actor Awards, neither La La Land nor 1917 was nominated in the Outstanding Cast category. This was the most telling sign that both were vulnerable for the Best Picture Oscar. Although it lost the Actor Award to Sinners, at least One Battle still got the nomination. While a Sinners upset is in the realm of possibility, One Battle has too many victories under its belt to lose at this point. That said, if you hear Ryan Coogler’s name called in the Best Director category, you should change your Best Picture prediction to Sinners at the last minute. 

My Prediction: One Battle After Another
My Preference: One Battle After Another

The 98th Academy Awards take place on March 15, 2026. 

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1, 2, and 3. Available Now!