^{Credit: KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix, Sony Pictures Animation), Sinners (Warner Bros.)}

Five songs have been nominated at the 98th Academy Awards, although it feels like only two are. AMPAS has echoed this, rudely deciding not to have “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams, or "Sweet Dreams of Joy" from Viva Verdi! performed on the telecast. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters and “I Lied to You” from Sinners will be this year’s only Oscar-nominated songs that’ll be performed live. Even then, some would argue that this isn’t a two-horse race. “Golden” is too far out in front to fail, but an “I Lied to You” upset isn’t out of the question.

At the dawn of awards season, “Golden” and “I Lied to You” seemed equally matched, with each picking up roughly the same number of prizes among regional critics groups. At the Hollywood Music in Media Awards, “I Lied to You” won Original Song – Feature Film, while “Golden” walked away with Original Song – Animated Film. The HMMA gave “I Lied to You” a slight edge, as it beat “Golden” for the Song – Onscreen Performance (Film) category. “Golden” emerged as the season’s favorite, though, when it won Best Original Song at the Critics’ Choice Awards.

The biggest test would come at the Golden Globes, which routinely recognized songs from animated films in the 90s, but have been less receptive toward them in the 21st century. Until this year, the last song from an animated film to win a Globe was “Song of the Heart” from Happy Feet. “Song of the Heart” ultimately wasn’t nominated for the Oscar. “You’ll Be in My Heart” from Tarzan was the last song from an animated film to win both the Globe and the Oscar. “Golden” is halfway there, as it pulled off a Globe win. Only two songs have won at Critics’ Choice and the Globes without going on to win the big prize: "Old Habits Die Hard" from Alfie and “The Wrestler” from The Wrestler, neither of which got nominated for the Oscar.

“Golden” and “I Lied to You” faced off again at the Grammys, with the former prevailing in Best Song Written for Visual Media. Sinners did beat KPop Demon Hunters in another category, Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media. That race wasn’t specifically between “Golden” and “I Lied to You,” however. More significantly, “I Lied to You” wasn’t nominated for Song of the Year. “Golden” became the first tune from an animated film since The Lion King to break into the Song of the Year race. While it lost to Billie Eilish’s "Wildflower," “Golden” has shown few weaknesses throughout the season.

“Golden” and “I Lied to You” competed in separate categories at the Society of Composers & Lyricists Awards, which didn’t provide much insight. “I Lied to You” won the Online Film & Television Association Award, with “Golden” as the runner-up. That hardly trumps “Golden’s” wins at the Grammys, Globes, and Critics’ Choice, however. OFTA might’ve been compelled to vote for “I Lied to You” because “Golden” is more likely to win the Oscar. “I Lied to You” also won the OFTA Award for Most Cinematic Moment. That might be the strongest argument for “I Lied to You” winning the Oscar. For many, “I Lied to You” is the movie moment of the year. It’s a perfect fusion of Ryan Coogler’s direction, Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s cinematography, Michael P. Shawver’s editing, Miles Caton’s performance, and, of course, the song itself, chronicling a musical evolution in one stunning sequence.

If the category were for Best Scene, “I Lied to You” would win in a heartbeat. That said, the Academy isn’t voting for what they think is the best scene per se. They’re voting for Best Song, which is where “Golden” may have “I Lied to You” beat. While “I Lied to You” is a great song, it admittedly loses some of its impact when isolated from the imagery onscreen. “Golden” is a banger that people can listen to on an endless loop without tiring of it. It also plays a key role in the film, although other songs in KPop Demon Hunters are perhaps narratively stronger. “What It Sounds Like” is one example, but considering how “Golden” exploded, going 5x Platinum, it would’ve been foolish for Netflix to submit anything else.

“Golden” has been inescapable throughout the past several months, being performed on SNL, The Tonight Show, and Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade, not to mention at a TIFF event. It’s even being performed at the BAFTA Awards, where KPop Demon Hunters isn’t even eligible. “I Lied to You” isn’t being performed, even though Sinners is up for fourteen BAFTAs. The Huntrix performers have made all the stops on the campaign trail. “I Lied to You” just hasn’t received the same level of fanfare. Then again, maybe “I Lied to You” doesn’t need a huge push. Maybe the Academy will love Sinners enough to give it the win.

Sinners broke the record for the most Oscar nominations in history (Sixteen). Even if they didn’t introduce the Best Casting Oscar this year, Sinners still would’ve broken the record with fifteen. Exactly how many Oscars is it going to win, though? If it weren’t for Frankenstein, Sinners could’ve been the frontrunner in Best Production Design, Costume Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling. It’s hard to bet against a Guillermo del Toro film in those categories, however. Sinners is in a strong position to win Best Cinematography, but so are Train Dreams and One Battle After Another. Speaking of which, One Battle will be Sinners’ strongest competitor for Best Casting, Supporting Actress, Best Director, and Best Picture.

Michael B. Jordan is unlikely to beat Timothée Chalamet or Wagner Moura in Best Actor. F1 and One Battle are in better spots to win Best Film Editing. A Delroy Lindo surprise in Best Supporting Actor could happen if there’s a split at BAFTA and the Actor Awards, but it would be a Marcia Gay Harden-level upset. Sound is really a five-horse race, but F1 appears to be in the lead. I have a hard time believing that Sinners won’t win Best Original Screenplay, although the winds can still shift in Sentimental Value’s favor.

The only award that Sinners seems guaranteed to win is Best Original Score for Ludwig Göransson. While I can’t fathom Sinners only winning one Oscar, it may lose more than half. In that case, Sinners may not be as beloved as some assume, meaning Best Original Song wouldn’t be a ballot-check. Either way, Göransson will win an Oscar for the Sinners’ score. So, it’s not as if his brilliant work will go unrecognized if “I Lied to You” doesn’t win, although the song’s co-writer, Raphael Saadiq, would miss out.

Although both are music categories, the Best Original Song and Score winners don’t line up as much as you might think. Throughout the 21st century thus far, the only films to win both were The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Slumdog Millionaire, and La La Land. One could argue that “I Lied to You” has an advantage since Sinners is nominated for Best Picture, a category KPop Demon Hunters wasn’t eligible for. Voters don’t always go for Best Picture nominees in this category, however. Since 2000, sixteen of the twenty-five Best Original Song winners weren’t from Best Picture nominees. Ten of those winners were nominated against at least one song from a Best Picture nominee. Highlights include “Lose Yourself” from 8 Mile beating "I Move On" from Chicago and "The Hands That Built America" from Gangs of New York, as well as "It's Hard out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow beating “In the Deep” from Crash.

Since KPop Demon Hunters is considered the frontrunner in Best Animated Feature, it’s worth considering how often that category has lined up with the Best Original Song winner. Three Best Animated Features winners also took home Best Original Song: “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3, “Let It Go” from Frozen, and “Remember Me” from Coco. Meanwhile, WALL-E, Toy Story 4, and Encanto won Best Animated Features, but they lost Best Original Song for “Down to Earth,” "I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," and "Dos Oruguitas,” respectively. To be fair, Encanto might’ve won had it submitted “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” instead. There's maybe a 1% chance "Golden" wins Best Original Song, but KPop Demon Hunters loses Best Animated Feature. This would put it in the same boat as Monsters, Inc., which couldn't beat Shrek for Best Animated Feature, yet Randy Newman won an overdue Oscar for "If I Didn't Have You." 

Of all the aforementioned songs, “Golden” probably has the most in common with “Let It Go,” which similarly captured the zeitgeist. Even “Let It Go” wasn’t considered a lock for the Oscar. Some predicted it might go to U2’s “Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. Sinners is a much stronger film than the Nelson Mandela biopic, which only got the one Oscar nomination. “Ordinary Love” won the Golden Globe while “Let It Go” won at Critics’ Choice, though. This evened the playing field heading into the Oscars, but “Golden” has the Globe and CCA, not to mention the Grammy. As such, it’s hard to bet against “Golden” for the Oscar unless you’re anticipating a surprise Sinners sweep across the board.

If “Golden” does win, it’ll be the first K-pop song to win an Oscar, just as it was the first to win a Grammy. It would be the second song from a non-Disney animated feature to win after “When You Believe” from The Prince of Egypt. If KPop Demon Hunters wins Best Animated Feature as well, it’ll be the first non-Disney animated film to take home multiple Oscars. Overall, it would be the thirteenth animated feature to win Best Original Song. Seven individuals shared in the nomination for “Golden:” Ejae, Ido, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Mark Sonnenblick, Teddy, and 24. That would be the most recipients for a Best Original Song winner. Ejae also provided Rumi’s singing voice, which would mark the first time the voice of an animated character shared in the win for a song.

It’s my prediction that all of the above will come to fruition when the 98th Academy Awards are held on March 15… or maybe this is actually Diane Warren’s year?

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1, 2, and 3. Available Now!