^{Credit: Butterfly (Sacrebleu Productions), Forevergreen (Nathan Engelhardt & Jeremy Spears), The Girl Who Cried Pearls (National Film Board of Canada), Retirement Plan (The New Yorker), The Three Sisters (Polydont Films)}

Last year, Wander to Wonder won an Annie and a BAFTA, seemingly cementing itself as the Oscar favorite. In something of a surprise, the Oscar instead went to In the Shadow of the Cypress. Even when there’s a favorite in Best Animated Short (or any of the short categories, really), nothing is set in stone. This year, Aaron Blaise’s Snow Bear won the Annie, while Baz Sells’ Two Black Boys in Paradise won the BAFTA. Neither is nominated for the Oscar, giving awards prognosticators little to go on. There’s a case to be made for each of this year’s nominees, but which is in the strongest position to take home the Best Animated Short Academy Award?

Butterfly (Papillon) - Directed by Florence Miailhe, Produced by Ron Dyens

From an animation standpoint, Florence Miailhe’s Butterfly is perhaps this year’s most stunning nominee. Every image in Miailhe’s short is hand-painted, evoking the Oscar-winning The Old Man and the Sea. Miailhe has a personal connection to the film’s subject, Olympic swimmer Alfred Nakache. As a child, Miailhe took swim lessons from Nakache’s brother, Willian, and later met the Olympian himself. Miailhe’s story of survival against the backdrop of the Holocaust is sadly more relevant than one would hope. With craft and a timely subject at its core, Butterfly has all the makings of an Oscar winner. Producer Ron Dyens also shared in last year’s Best Animated Feature win for Flow. If Butterfly goes the distance, he’ll be the only person other than Nick Park to have Oscars for Best Animated Short and Feature.

Forevergreen - Directed by Nathan Engelhardt & Jeremy Spears

Before the nominations were announced, many were predicting Snow Bear to win the Oscar. Considering that it didn’t get the nomination, wouldn’t it make sense to predict to bear short that AMPAS ultimately favored? Just as Blaise came from a Disney background, so do Forevergreen’s directors, Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears. While the Disney influence is evident, this independent CG short sticks out with a distinct aesthetic derived from Spears’ wood-carving expertise. The story of an orphaned bear and his literal giving tree pulls at the heartstrings, which will play well among sentimental Oscar voters. Having an adorable animal at the forefront helps. The past three Best Animated Short winners (In the Shadow of the Cypress, War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko, and The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse) all had at least one animal. Other past winners include Piper, Feast, and Bear Story, the former two also having Disney ties.

The Girl Who Cried Pearls - Directed by Chris Lavis & Maciek Szczerbowski

On a storytelling level, Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski’s short may be the most gripping of the bunch. The Girl Who Cried Pearls is in the spirit of a fable that’s been told for generations, yet the story is completely original. The film has craft on its side as well, with a stop-motion style that’s dirty on the surface, yet polished in every other sense. It was produced with the National Film Board of Canada, which has backed dozens of Oscar-nominated and Oscar-winning shorts. Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski were also previously nominated in 2008 for Madame Tutli-Putli. They lost to another stop-motion short, Suzie Templeton’s Peter and the Wolf. Ironically, if The Girl Who Cried Pearls wins the Oscar, it’ll be the first stop-motion short since Peter and the Wolf to do so.

Retirement Plan - Directed by John Kelly, Produced by Andrew Freedman

John Kelly’s Retirement Plan is the shortest of the nominees (seven minutes), but it creates arguably the most memorable character of this year’s lineup: the balding, bespectacled Ray. Domhnall Gleeson breathes life into the middle-aged Ray, who lists all the things he wants to do before he’s gone. It’s so simple, yet oddly profound, connecting to the audience on different levels. For younger viewers, Ray’s narration is a wake-up call for how life flies by, only giving us so much time to accomplish our goals. For older viewers, there’s more urgency to Ray’s words, even if some of the items on his bucket list sound silly. The closer you get to the end, though, the less silly they start to sound. Either way, this New Yorker-backed short is the one that people seem to relate to the most.

The Three Sisters - Directed by Konstantin Bronzit

A humorous short that makes the most of its limited setting, The Three Sisters also has this year’s most interesting behind-the-scenes story. When the film made the Oscar shortlist, it was credited to Timur Kognov. The name eluded many because it was actually a pseudonym for Konstantin Bronzit, who was previously nominated for 2007’s Lavatory – Lovestory and 2014’s We Can't Live Without Cosmos. Bronzit submitted his short to film festivals as Timur Kognov, wanting to see how it would fare without an established filmmaker attached. It was naturally harder, but The Three Sisters nonetheless was accepted into the Oscar-qualifying Santa Barbara International Film Festival. It’s a fascinating narrative further boosted by Bronzit’s overdue status, now being on his third nomination.

Final Thoughts:

While Bronizit is overdue, so are Lavis and Szczerbowski, getting their first nomination in eighteen years. Multiple outlets are currently predicting The Girl Who Cried Pearls to win, including Clayton Davis of Variety, Wilson Chapman of IndieWire, and several members of Next Best Picture. Between its animation, story, and NFB’s backing, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if The Girl Who Cried Pearls won. The fact that this category hasn’t had a stop-motion victor in almost two decades gives me some pause, but the style is due for a win. Of this year’s Oscar nominees, Girl is the only one that got nominated for Best Animated Short at the Annies. It lost that award to Snow Bear, suggesting that Aaron Blaise’s film would likely have won the Oscar had it been nominated.

Forevergreen also got two Annie nominations for its production design and character animation. It’d be funny if Snow Bear won the Annie, Forevergreen won the Oscar, but we’ll never know what would’ve happened if these two bear shorts faced off. Some have questioned whether Forevergreen’s Christian subtext may alienate voters. While various Academy members may cringe at the thought of anything religious, many possess a spiritual side. Aside from Steven Spielberg, few have reportedly been thanked in more Oscar acceptance speeches than God. Although Forevergreen ends with a quote from the Bible, not everyone will necessarily see it as a religious film. Some may view it more as an environmental story, a parental story, or simply a cute story about a bear and a tree.   

Forevergreen is probably the most crowd-pleasing nominee, especially if voters have a soft spot for the Disney-esque character animation. While I listed several animal-centric shorts that previously won, AMPAS doesn’t always go for the cuddliest short. In 2021, Burrow lost to If Anything Happens I Love You. The following year, Robin Robin lost to The Windshield Wiper. In both cases, voters went for the more heavy-handed short. If voters are looking for social commentary, then Butterfly may prevail here.

Butterfly makes sense as a winner. It’s the most uniquely crafted, and its themes reflect an era where fascism is unfortunately on the rise. At the same time, my gut is telling me that Retirement Plan is the short that will resonate the most with voters. While Butterfly is the more important short, Retirement Plan may be the easiest to enjoy. Case in point, when producer Andrew Freedman saw Steven Spielberg at the Oscar Luncheon, he reportedly told him that he watched Retirement Plan and “loved it.” That doesn’t mean Spielberg is voting for Retirement Plan, per se. Spielberg also had a photo op with Jeremy Spears, who said that he had a "heartfelt reaction" to Forevergreen. 

If Retirement Plan has a drawback, it’s that Marah Curran and Eamonn O’Neill’s animation, while perfectly tailored to the film’s soothing tone, doesn’t push technical boundaries as much as some of the other nominees. Voters basing their picks on sheer craft are more inclined to vote for the hand-painted Butterfly or the stop-motion Girl Who Cried Pearls. That’s likely why Girl got nominated at the Annies, which has animators voting among animators. During the final stages at the Oscars, though, voting is open to the whole Academy. Numerous members will abstain from voting, as they won’t bother to watch the nominated shorts. Those who do vote may prioritize the animation itself while marking their ballots, but many will go with whatever hits them the most emotionally. Butterfly is a deeply effective piece of art, although if voters see themselves in Ray, they may be compelled to vote for his film.

Retirement Plan recently won the IFTA Film & Drama Award, the Irish equivalent of an Oscar, for Best Animated Short. It defeated Cartoon Saloon’s Éiru, which was considered a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination, only to miss out. Éiru was still included in Roadside Attractions’ theatrical presentation of this year’s animated short nominees, apparently to stretch out the runtime. On paper, Éiru seemed to have all the qualities of an Oscar nominee. It was stunningly animated, it had a socially relevant story about divided clans setting their differences aside for the sake of the world, and it was backed by an acclaimed animation studio. It even played with the Best Animated Feature-nominated Little Amélie or the Character of Rain. Yet, Retirement Plan won viewers' hearts with beautiful simplicity alone. If Retirement Plan could beat Éiru, it could outshine other shorts with flashier animation.

It doesn’t hurt that the Actors Branch is the Academy’s biggest. Retirement Plan has a high-profile star in Domhnall Gleeson, who’s been attending FYI events and giving interviews with John Kelly. Various Oscar-winning shorts are dialogue-free. In Best Animated Feature, Flow won last year without a single voice actor. Several big-name stars have lent their voices to Oscar-winning animated shorts, however. Geoffrey Rush narrated Harvie Krumpet. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse had a cast that included Gabriel Byrne, Idris Elba, and Tom Hollander. Hair Love mainly relied on visual storytelling, but Issa Rae made an essential voice cameo. Kobe Bryant might not have been an actor, but he was a celebrity everyone recognized in Dear Basketball. Even going back to 1970, Is It Always Right to Be Right? had Orson Welles as a narrator. 

That said, Animation is the Academy’s second-biggest branch, meaning a good portion of voting members may base their picks on filmmaking techniques. The smart money is thus on The Girl Who Cried Pearls or Butterfly, which broke more technical ground and have engrossing narratives. Between Gleeson’s voice work, its relatable themes, and praise from the likes of Steven Spielberg, though, I can’t help but shake the feeling that Retirement Plan is going to pull it off. Even if the animation isn’t as eye-catching as the competition’s, the imagery is still powerful and sticks with the audience. Something as simple as two lines on Ray’s face, as Gleeson pointed out in an interview, carries dramatic weight as we see his life flashing by before our eyes. This prediction might be just a vibe, but then again, Retirement Plan is very much a vibe movie. If I’m wrong, I will reply to every email I’ve ever flagged, I will clean up my desktop, and I will absolutely nail my predictions next year.

 

 

 

 

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My Prediction: Retirement Plan

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1, 2, and 3. Available Now!