^{Credit: Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony Pictures Releasing)}

There was never any doubt that Spider-Man: Brand New Day would be a massive financial success for Marvel and Sony. Few could’ve predicted, though, that it would surpass Star Wars: The Force Awakens as the highest-grossing movie domestically. Worldwide, Brand New Day still swings in behind Avatar at #1 and Avengers: Endgame at #2, although third hardly feels like a bronze medal. Just because Brand New Day has won the Bank of America Award doesn’t mean it’s destined for Oscar gold. Although it would be cool to see Tom Holland in the Best Actor conversation for his most mature portrayal of Peter Parker yet, he’ll likely have to wait for that Fred Astaire biopic to get his flowers. As for Best Picture, if No Way Home couldn’t do it after saving 2021’s box office, why would Brand New Day?

Still, I have a hard time believing that the Academy is going to shut out Brand New Day entirely. It isn’t unprecedented for AMPAS to ignore the biggest domestic film of a given year. Bad Boys for Life, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, and even Spider-Man 3 are a few examples. Snubbing the highest-grossing domestic movie of all time is another story, however. Only a handful of films have held this record, and virtually all of them got at least one Oscar nomination. Technically, the Oscars didn’t exist when The Birth of a Nation topped the box office in 1915. That said, it’s not as if AMPAS can conspire to ensure Brand New Day is nominated somewhere. If that were the case, they likely would’ve made room for audience favorites like Wonder Woman and Deadpool, which both blanked almost a decade ago.

I can see only two branches going for Brand New Day. One is the Sound Branch, which already feels like a stretch. A Spider-Man movie hasn’t been nominated for its sound work since Sam Raimi’s second film in his trilogy. What’s more, an MCU movie hasn’t been up for its sound since the original Black Panther, which did manage to break into the Best Picture race. Before that, the last MCU film to warrant recognition from the Sound Branch was the first Iron Man. Considering that No Way Home made the shortlist for Best Sound, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if No Way Home at least made it that far.

Brand New Day’s most realistic shot at an Oscar nomination is in Best Visual Effects, the one category No Way Home got into. No Way Home was in a less competitive roster, though, as effects-heavy blockbusters were still gradually making a comeback post-pandemic. This year, Brand New Day faces a more competitive field. Currently, my predictions for Best Visual Effects are Avengers: Doomsday, Dune: Part Three, Godzilla Minus Zero, The Odyssey, and Project Hail Mary. Brand New Day can still push one of those films out, but which is the most vulnerable?

It’s hard to say since The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary are the only two that’ve been released so far. Still, Dune: Part Three and Godzilla Minus Zero are follow-ups to past winners. They have to be seriously considered, with Dune in a position to pull off a third win. Except for Age of Ultron, every other Avengers movie has been nominated for its effects. However, an Avengers film has never won. If I’m going to swap out one of these potential nominees for Brand New Day, the other MCU movie perhaps makes the most sense.

On the other hand, the Avengers movies arguably have a better track record in Best Visual Effects than Spider-Man (at least in terms of nominations). Yes, Spider-Man 2 won back in 2005, but the franchise wouldn’t be nominated again until No Way Home over a decade and a half later. The Avengers series has scored four out of five nominations, whereas the live-action Spider-Man movies have been nominated three out of eight times. As a multiverse crossover, Doomsday also has a larger scale than Brand New Day, which kept its set pieces in New York.

The box office is what keeps me coming back to Brand New Day. Then again, Brand New Day may not hang onto its record for very long. With the MCU back in full swing, who’s to say that Doomsday won’t surpass Brand New Day as the highest domestic release? It can definitely happen, although Brand New Day may have a few advantages over Doomsday. As far as summer tentpoles go, Brand New Day pretty much had all of August to itself. The biggest competition was another Tom Holland film, The Odyssey, which came out two weeks earlier. The fact that Coyote vs. Acme has been something of a sleeper in the presence of these giants only makes its underdog story more compelling.

Doomsday, meanwhile, is opening the same day as Dune: Part Three. People are trying to make Dunesday the next Barbenheimer. Where Barbie and Oppenheimer made for perfect counter-programming, Doomsday and Dune are fighting for similar audiences. Even if Doomsday opens at #1, Dune could bite into much of its competitors' potential profits. Dune notably has IMAX showings on its side, whereas Doomsday is attempting to make “Infinity Vision” a thing. It doesn’t help that Jumanji: Open World comes out a week later. All three films will surely make bank, but with them duking it out for December supremacy, Brand New Day may maintain its record.

Even with that box office milestone, I’m not convinced that there will be room in Best Visual Effects for Brand New Day. In addition to the aforementioned contenders, we could also see Whalefall or Wildwood gain momentum over the following months. I’m not ready to change my Best Visual Effects predictions to etch out a place for Brand New Day. That can certainly change as BAFTA, the Visual Effects Society Awards, and other precursors give us a better idea of what’s out in front. As of now, though, it’s Best Visual Effects or bust for Spidey.

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1, 2, and 3. Available Now!