^{Credit: Avengers: Doomsday (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures), Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.), Godzilla Minus Zero (GKIDS), The Odyssey (Universal Pictures), Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios)}

At the 98th Academy Awards, the Best Visual Effects race was wrapped up from the moment Avatar: Fire and Ash’s release date was announced. Even if the third Avatar movie couldn’t manifest a Best Picture nomination like its predecessors, Fire and Ash’s remained out in front of the Best Visual Effects race by a significant margin. Looking ahead to the 99th Academy Awards, Best Visual Effects could be another predictable race with all eyes already on a presumed frontrunner. Where Fire and Ash stood virtually unopposed, though, Best Visual Effects can still go in a few different directions at the 2027 Oscars. 

^{Credit: Dune: Part Three (Warner Bros.)}

Does Dune: Part Three Already Have This Locked Up?

Dune: Part Three is hitting theaters almost exactly one year after Avatar: Fire and Ash. Both have a fair deal in common, being third entries in franchises that previously won Best Visual Effects twice. Like the first two Avatar movies, Dune and its 2024 sequel were nominated for Best Picture. Where Fire and Ash fell short of that prize, some are predicting Dune: Part Three to pull a Return of the King. While I have faith that Denis Villeneuve will stick the landing, Part Three could wind up being the weakest of this trilogy. Villeneuve has already adapted one novel deemed unfilmable. Dune Messiah may prove even more challenging, its source material being so divisive. 

If Dune: Part Three does turn out to be a Return of the King-level masterpiece, then a third Visual Effects win seems like a given. Even if the film ultimately disappoints, Dune: Part Three seems safe for a Visual Effects nomination, although winning would be another story. Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings, and Avatar are the only franchises that’ve won Best Visual Effects on three occasions. Dune might be the fourth franchise to do so, but it could also cap off at two wins like Alien or Indiana Jones. It doesn’t help that Dune: Part Three has to compete with at least two effects-heavy films that have cemented themselves as Best Picture players. Then again, Fire and Ash beat out Sinners and F1 even without a Best Picture nod. So, it’s not a deal breaker. 

^{Credit: The Odyssey (Universal Pictures)}

Will The Odyssey Bring Christopher Nolan Back Into This Race?

Christopher Nolan may accept another pair of Best Picture and Director Oscars for The Odyssey, just as he did for Oppenheimer. The Odyssey could also triumph in one category that Oppenheimer failed to get a nomination: Best Visual Effects. Oppenheimer strangely wasn’t even shortlisted for its effects. Some have attributed this to Oppenheimer’s use of practical effects, which the Visual Effects Branch hasn’t been as receptive towards as of late. Ironically, it used to be the opposite, with the original Tron getting passed over in favor of the practical magic in E.T., Blade Runner, and Poltergeist. 

Oppenheimer aside, though, Nolan movies have a strong track record in Best Visual Effects, with Inception, Interstellar, and Tenet all winning. The only Nolan movie that got nominated and lost here was The Dark Knight. Batman Begins, The Dark Knight Rises, and Dunkirk made the shortlist for Best Visual Effects, albeit not the final nominations lineup. Beyond Nolan’s filmography, an epic like The Odyssey is in the vein of past Best Visual Effects winners like Gladiator. Nolan’s track record isn’t perfect, but I have a hard time believing the Visual Effects Branch is going to overlook arguably his biggest and most ambitious movie yet. If The Odyssey ultimately dominates in the top categories, Best Visual Effects likely won’t be its Achilles' heel. 

^{Credit: Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM Studios)}

Will Rocky Score Project Hail Mary an Oscar? 

Project Hail Mary may not be competitive to win Best Picture like The Odyssey, although it stands a strong shot at a nomination. If Project Hail Mary can break into Best Picture, it just may pull off a win in Best Visual Effects. Why? One word: Rocky. Few characters from this year are more beloved than Ryan Gosling’s alien buddy, who was primarily brought to life through James Ortiz’s masterful puppetry. Again, Project Hail Mary could prove too practical for the VES Branch. That said, it’s not like the branch has a vendetta against practical effects. They’ve nominated other films that emphasized practical effects, such as Mad Max: Fury Road and Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One. 

If Rocky can entice the Effects Branch, then he should have little trouble winning over the Academy as a whole. The bigger question is whether James Ortiz will be included on the ballot if Project Hail Mary is nominated for its effects. Not being a visual effects supervisor, Ortiz probably won’t share in the nomination. Since Ortiz was the lead “Rockyteer,” it’d be unfair to exclude the man responsible for the film’s most important creation. It’d be like if animation director Richard Williams hadn’t been included for the Oscar-winning effects on Who Framed Roger Rabbit. 

^{Credit: Avengers: Doomsday (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures), Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony Pictures Releasing)}

Can the MCU Make a Comeback with Doomsday or Brand New Day?

The MCU is the most-nominated franchise in the category’s history. It’s also never managed to win. Marvel hasn’t been nominated since Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. Deadpool & Wolverine, Captain America: Brave New World, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Thunderbolts* were unable to advance beyond the shortlist. Marvel isn’t the only superhero brand that’s been passed over in recent years. Many expected James Gunn’s Superman to be nominated for its effects, but the branch resorted to recognizing Jurassic World Rebirth instead. If Superman couldn’t get nominated, it goes without saying that Supergirl won’t be a player either. DC also has Clayface this year, although that seems more like a makeup and hair player. 

Marvel, meanwhile, may be due for a comeback, especially given the killer year it’s already having. Spider-Man: Brand New Day is on track to become the web-slinger’s highest-grossing film yet. Despite opening the same day as Dune: Part Three, Avengers: Doomsday is poised to be another box office giant. Given how crowded this category is, there might not be enough room for two Marvel films. Between the two, Doomsday seems to be in a better position given its scale, while Brand New Day was a more street-level Spider-Man movie. Spider-Man: No Way Home is the only Tom Holland-led Spidey film to be nominated here. Three of the previous four Avengers movies were all nominated. Either way, neither Doomsday nor Brand New Day seem inclined to end Marvel’s losing streak in Best Visual Effects. That’s what the money’s for?

^{Credit: The Mandalorian and Grogu (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)}

Will The Mandalorian and Grogu Be the First Live-Action Star Wars Movie to Goose Egg?

Almost every Star Wars movie has been nominated for its effects. Revenge of the Sith was surprisingly left out of the effects race, but that prequel still got a nomination for its makeup. With middling reviews and underwhelming box office, The Mandalorian and Grogu could go down as the first live-action Star Wars movie to receive zero nominations. 2008’s The Clone Wars wasn’t even submitted for Best Animated Feature. Of course, many wrote off 2018’s Solo: A Star Wars Story after it bombed at the box office. Yet, that film still squeezed out a nomination for its effects. 

We could be similarly underestimating The Mandalorian and Grogu. For all its narrative flaws, the effects do offer an impressive blend of CGI, puppetry, and stop-motion in one standout sequence. If The Mandalorian and Grogu has a drawback, it’s that the effects are about on par with what the Disney+ series gave us. Although the show had a cinematic scale, that’s the general issue people have with the film. It plays like multiple episodes of a TV show stitched together. A nomination for Best Visual Effects or Best Sound could nonetheless materialize for Mandalorian, considering this franchise’s track record. Even if it goose eggs, Baby Yoda can always be Kate Hudson’s date again. 

^{Credit: Godzilla Minus Zero (GKIDS)}

Can Godzilla Minus Zero Make Lightning Strike Twice? 

Godzilla Minus One’s Best Visual Effects victory stands out as one of the coolest moments in modern Oscar history. Not just because Godzilla finally became an Oscar-winning franchise. The filmmakers also blew the American competition out of the water on a budget of roughly $10 million. This can be attributed to several financial factors, including the lower wages for artists in Japan. While that’s a much larger discussion, you know something is wrong when Disney spends $250 million on a live-action Moana remake that looks half-assed compared to what Godzilla Minus One pulled off. 

Godzilla Minus Zero’s budget hasn’t been confirmed, although it’ll likely cost more than its predecessor. On one hand, that should mean the effects will be even better, ensuring another nomination. On the other, Godzilla Minus One benefited from its underdog story. Even if Godzilla Minus Zero’s budget winds up being only slightly bigger, the David vs. four Goliaths narrative might not work twice. The critical and audience reception could also play into its campaign. With director Takashi Yamazaki being part of the visual effects team, it felt like the Academy wanted to award Godzilla Minus One as a whole. If Godzilla Minus Zero’s reviews are just as strong and the effects work speak for itself, Yamazaki might add another Oscar nomination to his résumé.

^{Credit: Wildwood (Laika, Fathom Entertainment)}

Can Wildwood Bring Stop-Motion Back Into the Race?

Only three animated features have been nominated for their effects: The Nightmare Before Christmas, Kubo and the Two Strings, and 2019’s The Lion King. With two of those films being stop-motion, it’s worth considering Wildwood. Laika, which also produced Kubo, has been hyping Wildwood up as their most technically ambitious film yet. While the film has yet to screen for critics, many are predicting Wildwood for a Best Animated Feature nomination and maybe a win. If Wildwood turns out to be the animation frontrunner, it could replicate Kubo’s success in the effects conversation. 

Conversely, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’s Best Animated Feature victory was practically preordained a few years ago. Even with Del Toro’s backing, Pinocchio couldn’t get a Best Visual Effects nomination. It didn’t even make the shortlist. A fully animated feature hasn’t been shortlisted for its effects since Pixar’s Soul, which was during a pandemic year that saw fewer big-budget tentpoles. Wildwood could at last break this dry spell. If Pinocchio couldn’t bring stop-motion back to the VFX Back-off, though, Wildwood will need to reach new heights.  

^{Credit: The End of Oak Street (Warner Bros.), Disclosure Day (Universal Pictures), The Sheep Detectives (Amazon MGM Studios), Backrooms (A24)}

What Other Films Are In Play? 

The End of Oak Street looks like the kind of Jurassic World movie that audiences have been demanding: prehistoric monsters wreaking havoc on suburbia rather than a remote island. If Jurassic World Rebirth could get a surprise nomination, why not this dino flick? Although we typically associate effects with action, CG was utilized to create woolly, surprisingly emotive crime-solvers in The Sheep Detectives. We haven’t seen a nominee quite like Sheep Detectives since the original Babe, but could the charm of the characters carry it to a nomination? 

While a fair deal of digital effects went into the aquatic thriller Whalefall, it also employed an astounding amount of practical effects, including a giant animatronic for half of the whale’s head. Steven Spielberg films have often done well in this category. The CGI animals were among Disclosure Day’s weaker aspects, but the final alien reveal leaves a strong impression. We could also see a smaller film like Backrooms break through here. “Small” might not be the right word for Backrooms, as it became A24’s highest-grossing film to date. With a budget under $10 million, though, the effects team turned in some of the year’s creepiest imagery. 

So What’s Getting Nominated? 

Dune: Part Three, The Odyssey, and Project Hail Mary all seem like locks for nominations. Given the response to Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Avengers: Doomsday is in a position to end the year on a high note for Marvel, bringing them back into the effects race. Godzilla Minus Zero seems like a safe bet for the final slot, although Whalefall or The End of Oak Street could take its place as this year’s creature feature. As for what’s winning, Dune: Part Three remains in my #1 spot for the time being. If that film underperforms critically, financially, or in terms of awards, though, a cyclops and rock spider are waiting in the wings. 

Best Visual Effects Predictions:
1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey 
4. Avengers: Doomsday
5. Godzilla Minus Zero 

Runner-Ups:
1. Whalefall
2. The End of Oak Street
3. The Sheep Detectives 
4. The Mandalorian and Grogu
5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Dark Horses:
1. Wildwood
2. Disclosure Day
3. Backrooms
4. Digger
5. Supergirl

Other Potential Contenders:
Clayface
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die
Hope
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
Masters of the Universe 
Moana 
Resident Evil
Werewulf

Nick Spake is the Author of Bright & Shiny: A History of Animation at Award Shows Volumes 1, 2, and 3. Available Now!